The Bridge, Not the Destination
Designing the EAC market for cement to follow the REC playbook — not CDR.
Executive Summary
Microsoft alone accounted for 93% of all global CDR purchases in 2025. A market where one buyer is 93% of demand is not a market — it is a patronage system.
The REC market succeeded because it created thousands of obligated buyers through definitions, scoring systems, and mandates — not voluntary corporate goodwill.
The EAC market for cement is at a fork: it will either follow the REC playbook (definitions → demand → scale → cost ↓) or the CDR path (voluntary → expensive → subscale).
Four structural pillars determine which path wins: Net Zero Embodied Carbon definitions, purpose-built financing like CTC, GRESB/USGBC scoring reform, and EACs designed to sunset.
"The REC market didn't just finance renewables — it made them inevitable. The EAC market for cement must do the same, or it will become another CDR: well-intentioned, permanently expensive, and perpetually subscale."
The REC Succeeded. CDR Didn't. Why?
Between 2010 and 2025, solar PV costs fell 89%, onshore wind fell 70%, and the global REC market grew to $20–30 billion annually. This wasn't a technology story. It was a market architecture story — a deliberately designed, self-reinforcing cycle.
The CDR market has none of these elements. No universal definition compels procurement. No scoring system penalizes inaction. No financing architecture scales supply.
A Market Where One Buyer Is 93% Is Not a Market
According to BloombergNEF, Microsoft accounted for 93% of all global CDR purchases in 2025. When Microsoft paused new purchases in early 2026 to review its portfolio, the entire sector's pipeline froze.
The REC market created thousands of obligated buyers — utilities meeting Renewable Portfolio Standards, corporations pursuing RE100, REITs optimizing GRESB scores. When any single buyer paused, the market barely noticed. That is the difference between a market and a patronage system.
The Foundation: GMA, RMI, and the Buyers Alliance
Credit where credit is due. The Center for Green Market Activation (GMA) and RMI have done the most important early work in the cement EAC space — and their approach is structurally sound.
Book & Claim Framework
The first credible, industry-vetted protocol for separating environmental attributes of low-carbon cement from the physical commodity. v1 adopted January 2026.
Exactly what the renewable energy industry built with RECs in the early 2000s — the boring, essential plumbing that makes a market possible.
SCoBA Buyers Alliance
Launched Sept 2025. Amazon, Prologis, Meta and others aggregating demand. First RFP April 2026 targeting 250,000 tons/year with multi-year offtake commitments.
Creating the coordinated demand signal that the CDR market has never achieved.
GMA and RMI are building the rails that the train will run on. But rails alone don't create a market. The early REC market also had committed buyers and good frameworks. What turned it from a niche initiative into a $20–30 billion market was the ecosystem around it.
SCoBA is the seed. The four pillars below are what makes it grow.
The Four Pillars
Net Zero Embodied Carbon
Codified, auditable standards with reduction targets aligned to 1.5°C. The target that creates the buyer.
Purpose-Built Capital
Blended finance structures layering catalytic, offtake, and credit-enhanced debt. CTC bridges the valley of death.
GRESB & USGBC Reform
Weight embodied carbon at 15–20% of GRESB Development scores. Create LEED Zero Embodied Carbon certification.
EACs as a Bridge
Declining eligibility caps (100% → 0% by 2045) ensure EACs make themselves unnecessary — like RECs did.
Pillar 1: Net Zero Embodied Carbon Definitions
The REC market's secret weapon wasn't the certificate — it was the definition. "Net Zero Operational Carbon" created a target. The target created a gap. The gap created buyers. Buyers created a market.
LEED v5 now requires quantification of embodied carbon. The UK NZCBS launched in 2026. But there is no universally adopted, auditable Net Zero Embodied Carbon standard that creates an obligation to act. Without the definition, the demand cascade never starts.
Pillar 2: Purpose-Built Financing
A FOAK low-carbon cement facility requires $500M–$2B+, takes 3–7 years to commission, has no guaranteed buyers, and uses unproven-at-scale technology. Traditional project finance can't touch it.
CTC Blended Finance Architecture
Pillar 3: Institutional Scoring Reform
GRESB scores determine where $30+ trillion in institutional capital flows. LEED certification commands 5–20% rental premiums. When scores reward something, the industry does it.
GRESB Trajectory
What We Need
Pillar 4: EACs as a Temporary Bridge
If the EAC market is still thriving in 2045, we've failed. If it's unnecessary because low-carbon cement is the default, we've succeeded.
Expected EAC Cost Trajectory
$/ton CO₂e reduced — following the renewable energy cost curve
Small buyer base, blended finance, proof of concept
GRESB/LEED drive broad demand, learning curves start
Low-carbon concrete approaches cost parity
EAC market shrinks; low-carbon cement IS the standard
Declining Eligibility Caps
Maximum share of Net Zero Embodied Carbon targets achievable via book-and-claim EACs. Forces transition to physical procurement.
The Choice Is Ours
The built environment produces ~40% of global energy-related CO₂. We solved operational carbon with a proven playbook: definitions, scoring, financing, and a bridge instrument that made renewables inevitable.
Embodied carbon — with cement at 8% of global emissions — is the last, largest piece. The technology exists. The financing can be structured. The scoring systems are evolving. The EAC framework is being built.
We've done this before. We know the playbook. We just need to run it.
Go Deeper
This paper draws on CTC's published research. Each topic above is explored in depth:
Continue exploring how environmental attributes and market design unlock capital for low-carbon cement.